Are Israeli-Turkish Relations Beyond Repair?

Erdogan walks out on Israeli President Shimon Peres
at the Davos World Economic Forum in 2010

A shortened version of this article was posted on Ynetnews, found here.

By: Avi Yesawich

The findings of the UN Palmer report, coupled with Israeli determination to withhold an apology over the deaths of nine Turkish nationals on the Mavi Marmara, have influenced Turkey to follow through on a threatening ultimatum regarding a major downgrade in Israeli-Turkish relations. The Turks have effectively “resorted to Plan B,” even though the Palmer Report declared Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip is legal, a notion which inspired Turkish-backing of the Mavi Marmara in the first place.

So what is Plan B? In brief, it involves a major downgrading of diplomatic relations, expulsion of Israeli ambassador Gabbi Levy, Turkish support for those who wish to bring legal charges against Israel, full support of the Palestinian’s UN bid, an end to military and intelligence cooperation and significant trade sanctions and reduction of investment projects in Israel. Turkey has even threatened to send warships to accompany future flotilla efforts, a potentially game-changing provocation in its own right.

If completely realized, the downgrading of relations between the two countries may be a genuine nail in the coffin for Israel-Turkish relations on almost every front, including commerce, intelligence, security, and military and economic cooperation. Bank of Israel head Stanley Fischer remarked yesterday that the diplomatic row and damaged trade relations would pose severe consequences for the Israeli economy. Current trade relations between the two countries are set to amount to nearly $4 billion, or 3% of all Israeli trade.

The move will also likely serve to further strengthen our once-critical ally’s relationship with our enemies in the region. The Arab League has already declared it’s support for Turkey’s decision, and Hamas welcomed the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Turkey while calling the report “biased” and a result of “Israeli-American” pressure. News of an upgrade in Turkish-Egypt strategic cooperation has spawned alarm in Israeli circles as well, especially since the two countries face similar diplomatic issues with Israel at the moment.

Erdogan himself declared the report to be “null and void” Meanwhile, the government has decided to pursue other avenues in addressing Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Turkey is now going forth with a bid to bring Israel’s blockage of Gaza to the International Court of Justice in Hague. If the Turkish government proceeds with its plan, their actions will undoubtedly push tensions between Israel and Turkey to an all-time low, perhaps even to the breaking point.

ICJ bid unlikely to materialize

The chances of such a scenario occurring are slim, indeed: In order for the case to be submitted to the ICJ, both parties must agree to participation in such an affair, which Israel. Furthermore, an indictment can’t be issued against countries who aren’t party to the Rome Statue (in this case, both countries) without the approval of the UN Security Council, whose parties are eager to see Israel and Turkey resolve their differences outside of the ICJ. Lastly, such a move could backfire against Turkey, which may again find a ruling in favor of Israel and the Gaza Blockade.

What is interesting is that similar Arab countries have expressed a desire to bring the Gaza blockade to the ICJ, yet have refrained from doing so - ostensibly because of American pressure. Turkey, which is a member of NATO, is defying Western influence by doing exactly that. This itself is one of the most telling indications of the nosedive the Israeli-Turkish relationship has taken over the past few years.

Significant deliberation over whether to apologize and compensate the Turkish government or remain adamant in the face of Turkish pressure has taken place since the incident took place in May 2010, including multiple high-level meetings that were conducted in Washington. However, these meetings always concluded in an impasse between the negotiating parties.

From a technical standpoint, Israel does possess an ample reason to apologize for Turkey, one which could quickly bury the hatchet between the two countries and is notably lacking in the Palmer Report: Israeli interception of the Mavi Marmara was executed far from Gaza’s shores, in what were effectively international waters. Before raiding the ship, Israel issued the Turkish vessel no final warning, giving the passengers on board legal pretext to defend themselves against the Shayetet 13 soldiers.

On the other hand, the Turkish reaction also stretches the limits of reasonability. After strongly supporting UN involvement in assessing the aftermath of the Gaza Flotilla affair, the sudden, outright rejection of the report on the basis of its conclusions comes off as hypocritical. Additionally, the Turkish military has been continuously targeting PKK strongholds in northern Iraq - a sovereign nation - with massive air bombardments in response to Kurdish separatists’ attacks originating from the Iraq.

Political analysts and security experts have issued wide-ranging evaluations on the implications of Turkey’s actions. Whether Turkey follows through on all of its threats regarding relations with Israel remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, many Western nations will lobby aggressively for Israel and Turkey to resolve their differences quickly and avoid exacerbating tensions.

The fact is that there remains an opportunity for Israel and Turkey to emerge from this diplomatic row and resolve their outstanding differences. National honor plays a major role in the positions of both countries, and appeasement is apparently not in the cards of either country. Contrarily, elements in both countries are pushing for reconciliation, and each party realizes the enormous consequences of a complete political fallout between Jerusalem and Ankara.

Unless further negotiations and mediation efforts are reinforced, both by local government officials and the international community, we may see relations between Israel and Turkey decline to a point that is beyond repair. The last thing we need right now is another enemy in the region.